The Agri-Food Value View
"Building Wealth Through Global Agri-Food Investments"

is the premier newsletter on Agri-Food investing.
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Disclaimer: All performance numbers cited are
hypothetical and based on paper portfolios. They do
not reflect actual transactions or portfolios. They
certainly do not predict likely future performance.
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Ned's Random Agri-Thoughts:

17 June 2017

Agri-Food Price Index Hits New All Time High

Agri-Food Price Index: 268.45
Record High: 268.45     0%
                            4 Week % Change:   + 2.6%                                
52 Week % Change:   +16%
                                 200 Day Moving Average: 264.53                                      
52-Week High: 268.45    0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +39%

Agri-Food Price Index hit a new closing all time high this past week. From
the low in October, the index is now up 39%. Of the 18 Agri-Commodities 9
of them have achieved new 52-week highs in the past three weeks. Source of
that strength thus far has been animal proteins, though seasonals may now be
hitting beef and chickens. Pork and hogs were a surprise as they were truly
strong last week. From their 52-week lows both up 100+%.

While beef complex may be hit by seasonals, outlook for beef is better
First shipment of US beef flown to China this week. India’s beef ban seems
to be continuing, but no real numbers on impact yet. India is 20% o
global beef exports.

Agri-Equities up 0.4% this month are lagging S&P 500, +0.9%, but doing
far better than NASDAQ, -0.8%. Violent rotation in market as technology
and internet are dumped. Federal Reserve policy announcement extremely
dangerous for NASDAQ 100. Best approach may be to use the ETF MOO.

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7 June 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 264.53
Record High: 267.81  -1.2%
                          4 Week % Change:   + 4.1%                                
52 Week % Change:   +17.3%
                        200 Day Moving Average: 264.53                                     
52-Week High: 264.53    0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +37%

Agri-Food Price Index hit new 52-week high this week. Index is just shy
of all time high hit during 2014. Animal proteins continue to be the strongest
sector. Seven animal protein sources we follow are on average up 65%
from 52-week lows. USDA beef index hit a new 52-week high on Tuesday.
Ultimately, those higher prices will cause production to rise and more
grains to be consumed as feed.

We reviewed the global corn situation in the June letter. With both
production and inventories down this year, situation looks more positive.
Our measure of US corn prices was $3.75 on Wednesday. That prices is
the upper edge of the trading range for corn. Any move higher would
suggest corn has finally broken out of the trading range.

With U.S. stock market in a full blown, debt financed bubble, most stocks
are over valued. We are watching with interest ADM, BG, JBSAY.

21 May 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 261.72
1 Week % Change:   + 3.0%
4 Week % Change:   + 9.2%                                
52 Week % Change:   +18.9%
                    200 Day Moving Average: 228.00                                                  
52-Week High: 261.72    0%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +35%

Agri-Food Price Index hit new 52-week high last week. US broilers and
butter hit new 52-week highs. Average gain for Agri-Commodities from
52-week lows is more than 30%. Excluding corn, soybeans, and wheat,
the remainder are up near 40% on average. That measure suggests an
extremely strong market. In such a market, the laggards eventually begin
to catch up. We believe that US corn prices will lead the three major grains
higher. Just did our corn supply/demand analysis for June newsletter, and it
is a positive picture. We note that other analysts are starting to be more
positive on US corn.

Brazilian political mess is a real mess. Does not seem to be a path to a positive
resolution of it in the immediate term. Hard to imagine president and businessmen
acting as stupid as being reported by some sources. Conclusion: Brazilian currency
will basically remain weak causing more soybeans to come out of that nation.

Roughly 60% of Agri-Equities are performing better than market. But, Brazil
has hurt. JBS management may be involved in part of government’s turmoil.
However, continue selling out of Brazil due to weak curency is likely to benefit
ADM and BG. Bigger issue is whether or not U.S. equity market put in the
beginning of a large rolling “top” last week. Remember, 14 June
FOMC raises rates for the 4th time.

6 May 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 249.74
1 Week % Change:   + 2.1%
4 Week % Change:   + 1.9%                                
52 Week % Change:   +14.0%
200 Day Moving Average: 228.00                                                  
52-Week High: 257.26  - 3%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +29%

Thanks to strong prices for animal proteins and bottoms in most grains,
Agri-Food Price Index had a strong week. Index is up 14% from a year ago,
and up 29% from October low. While seasonals are helping, demand simply
is stronger in animals than many think. Both USDA beef index and feeder cattle
new hit 52- week highs. U.S. broilers are close. U.S. hogs up 52% from lows.

Importantly, major grains seem to have made recent lows. US corn recent
low 24 Mar, soybeans 7 April and HRW wheat 21 April. Our measure of
US corn closed week at $3.65. A price above $3.75 would create a lot
of corn bulls, and cause a lot of pain for teenage traders short grains.

Good news and bad news out of Brazil. Prices to farmers are low, below
breakeven for most farmers. Estimates are hard to make sense of as depends
on which grain and which regions is being discussed. Some estimates are as
high 70% of the harvest has not been sold, far above normal times. Means
U.S. grains are still selling in export market. Also, Brazilian farmers are likely
to severely cut back next year plantings. Environment for next year better
than pessimistic views.

Bad news was for ADM and BG. Both experienced weak earnings in
Brazil because of little grain being sold. BG was hit the most. June will probably
be a good time to look at these two stocks. We had carried both of them
as over valued.

WASDE could be interesting this week.

17 April 2017

We updated samples available in links to right.

8 April 2017

Agri-Food Price Index: 244.99
1 Week % Change:   - 1.8%
4 Week % Change:   - 1.7%                                
52 Week % Change:   +15.1%
200 Day Moving Average: 225.60                                                  
52-Week High: 257.26  - 3%
52-Week Low: 193.39 +29%

Irrational Selling by Teenagers in Futures Still Causing Damage
Selling in major grains has turned near entire Agri-Food system sentiment
negative. Cash grains prices, soybeans, wheat, and corn, deeply, deeply
oversold. That over sold condition, however, may be starting to end. Our
cash prices for both corn and HRW wheat are up from two weeks ago.

Soybean trading makes no sense. USDA estimate for crop year 2017,
ends 31 August, soybean exports is 55.11mm tons. To date, soybeans
exports, actually shipped and sold but not shipped, equals 55.152mm tons.
Soybean exports already more than estimate for the year.

Also, estimate is US farmers will plant 6mm acres more of soybeans this year.
Corn acres to be down 4mm acres. Where will those 2mm acres come from?
Land that was not good for either soybean or corn is now suddenly good
land for soybeans. Doubt it.

Wonder is WASDE this week will make any sense.

U.S. equity markets have two problems: Interest rates and Syria. 47% of Agri-
Equities doing better than market so far in April. JBSAY is extremely
attractive at current price. Brazil beefgate was not the end of the world.

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25 March 2017

Published Interim Comments yesterday, 24 March
Like everyone else we are waiting for USDA
Prospective Planting report on Friday, 31st

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A web cast on Gold & Agri  1 June  2017
To hear web cast:
Gold & Agriculture
is now the dominant trend and will
influence Agri-Foods for decades.
Read our introductory article:
Peak Food: An Introduction
We are now accepting payment through for subscriptions. If you
would like to use it send us an email at
extends our discussion of Peak Food
and the implications.
Read our Part Two artiicle:
Peak Food: Part Two
continues our discussion of peak food.
Agricultural area of Earth has peaked.
Island Earth  

Web cast on Gold & Agriculture
20 March
On Gold & Agriculture